BMO Metals Brief

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Metals Brief

market in surplus and forecasts 3M copper averaging $13,050/t in Q3, with downside 5,500

limited by Chinese dip-buying and investor enthusiasm for copper’s long-term structural demand 5,400

5,300

story. 5,200

5,100

 CRU publishes July Sulphur Monitor: CRU's latest Sulphur Monitor maintains a broadly unchanged 5,000

outlook, with sulphur prices expected to have peaked in June and gradually ease from July 4,900

onwards as vessel mobility through the Strait of Hormuz improves. Despite 27 vessels carrying a 4,800 4,700

combined 1.34Mt of sulphur departing the Middle East since the conflict began, most cargoes 4,600

were reportedly pre-sold or contracted, limiting the increase in spot market liquidity. Supply 4,500

constraints also persist elsewhere, with Russia extending its sulphur export ban through the end 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul

of 2026 following disruptions to Kazakh sulphur rail shipments. While CRU expects easing freight Source: LME, BMO Capital Markets

disruptions and additional Middle East supply to weigh on prices through H2, it notes the market

remains structurally undersupplied and warns that slower-than-expected vessel movements or

loadings could delay the anticipated correction. CRU forecasts Middle East sulphur prices easing Spot Gold

from $1,055/t FOB in June to around $1,000/t in July and towards $450/t by year-end.

5,000

 CATL clears hurdle for Jianxiawo mine restart: CATL has obtained a safety production permit for

its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, according to Reuters, paving the way for the restart of 4,800

operations after production was suspended for almost a year when the mine's previous licence

expired in August 2025. The closure briefly triggered a rally in lithium futures and lithium 4,600