BMO Precious Metals Monitor: Warsh and Central Bank Flows Keep Gold Alive

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Precious Metals Monitor: Warsh and Central Bank Flows Keep Gold Alive

July 8, 2026 | 06:37 ET~

BMO Global Commodities Research

BMO Precious Metals Monitor: Warsh and Central BMO Global Commodities Research

Bank Flows Keep Gold Alive Helen Amos Analyst

helen.amos@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8180

George Heppel Analyst

Bottom Line: george.heppel@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8106

Gold prices bounced firmly last week from sub-$4k lows, as rate expectations eased Walid Hasanzadeh Associate

somewhat and countercyclical official sector buying has stepped up. However, while walid.hasanzadeh@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7872 156589

softer U.S. labour market data and more dovish comments from Fed Governor Warsh Alona Yunda Senior Associate

created strategic/diversification demand tailwinds, the largest weekly gold ETF outflows alona.yunda@bmo.com +44 (0) 789 479 7518

since 2018 suggest speculative institutional and retail investors continue to rotate out of Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

gold amid improving sentiment around AI and growth sectors. In contrast, central bank

buying remains robust, with World Gold Council data showing purchases accelerated to

41t in May, while China's June reserve data showed its largest monthly addition since

October 2023, reinforcing evidence of continued dip buying. Meanwhile, developments

in Hong Kong's gold market, including record futures volumes, a new clearing and

settlement system, and proposed pension fund reforms, support the view that the

centre of gravity for gold demand and price discovery is increasingly shifting towards

China and the broader Asian market.

Key Points

Gold rebounded last week, snapping a five-week losing streak and rising 2.3% to

US$4,164/oz, reducing its YTD decline to 4.7%. The gain followed softer U.S. labour