Cantor Daily Research Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

Cantor Daily Research Highlights

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favorable safety profile, which could support use ahead of RAS inhibitors in clinical practice.

■ In a first-line mPDAC market we estimate could exceed $9B, we believe multiple mechanisms can coexist. At 20% market

penetration, atebimetinib could generate ~$2.4B in peak sales.

Where could we be wrong?

We believe investor skepticism toward atebi reflects three main concerns: 1) MEK-based mechanisms have a checkered

history in PDAC; 2) atebi has shown only modest monotherapy activity; and 3) imbalances in patient characteristics,

particularly liver metastases, in the Ph2 study may have confounded interpretation of the OS benefit.

While we take a more constructive view of the Phase 3 outcome, we acknowledge several key risks.

1) The degree of OS benefit in Ph3 may be more diluted than we expect, given the larger sample size, greater

patient heterogeneity, and potential differences in baseline characteristics. Because atebi’s monotherapy activity

in PDAC appears modest, the thesis depends heavily on the synergy argument, which is supported primarily by a

small, single-arm study.

2) Rapid adoption of the pan-RAS inhibitor daraxonrasib in later lines of therapy could prolong survival in both

arms of the Ph3 trial, unlike in Ph2, where the impact was minimal. This could delay the top-line readout and

weaken the trial’s statistical assumptions.

3) Pan-RAS/KRAS-selective inhibitors and PRMT5 inhibitors are advancing quickly into 1L mPDAC, which could

challenge our 20% adoption-rate assumption.

Potential Catalysts

■ Late 2027: Preliminary Ph2 1L NSCLC combination data

■ Mid-2028: Top-line MAPKeeper-301 overall survival readouts

July 8

Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment:

Matthew Prisco (212-610-2416, Matthew.Prisco@cantor.com)