Positioning for the SoI/SoA transition in mission critical systems

Research evidence excerpt

Positioning for the SoI/SoA transition in mission critical systems

Macquarie Equity Research Fujitsu

Earnings estimates

The new MTP and assumptions on our estimates

We expect Fujitsu to sustain its current growth momentum through around 2030, supported

by ongoing enterprise modernisation and broader adoption of Uvance-related solutions,

particularly horizontal platforms development using products such as SAP, Salesforce and

ServiceNow. In our view, this phase is primarily driven by the continued buildout of SoR and

related digital foundations across its customer base.

Looking into the 2030s, we believe wider deployment of AI infrastructure and Sovereign

Platform initiatives, along with the next cycle of public-sector system investment, will

become increasingly important growth drivers. We view this period as the key test of

whether Fujitsu can translate its investments in AI-native infrastructure, trusted computing,

and SoI/SoA capabilities into a more durable acceleration of earnings growth. If successful,

the company could evolve beyond a traditional modernisation beneficiary and establish

a stronger position in mission-critical AI-enabled systems and national-scale digital

infrastructure.

We incorporate hardware sales to gradually decline as enterprise modernisation progresses

and workloads continue to migrate to cloud platforms.

We also assume approximately ¥100bn of one-off expenses in FY3/27 related to UK Post

Office compensation payments.

Figure 3 - Revised earnings estimates

(Y bn) FY3/27 FY3/28 FY3/29 FY3/30 FY3/31

Sales 3,528.4 3,652.9 3,790.0 3,940.5 4,072.9

% chg YoY 0.7% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.4%

Services 2,476.1 2,632.8 2,800.1 2,978.9 3,169.8

Enterprise 939.9 1,019.8 1,106.5 1,200.6 1,302.6

Public 1,536.1 1,612.9 1,693.6 1,778.3 1,867.2