Latin American Economic Perspectives "Brazil June IPCA: Softer core and..."

Research evidence excerpt

Latin American Economic Perspectives "Brazil June IPCA: Softer core and..."

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Latin American Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasBrazil June IPCA: Softer core and foodstuffs

Rodrigo Martinsinflation

Economist

rodrigo.martins@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6338

June IPCA inflation printed 0.16% MoM Alexandre de Azara

The print was roughly half of our estimate (0.29%) and consensus expectations Economist

(0.31%). In 12-month terms, inflation slowed to 4.64% from 4.72%. Most of the alexandre.azara@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6570

downside surprise came from foodstuffs and, to a lesser extent, core goods. The

BCB’s 5-core average rose 0.21% MoM, below our 0.30% UBSe, and decelerated both Fabio Ramos

in YoY terms (to 4.4% from 4.5%) and on a 3m saar basis (to 5.0% from 5.5%). Given Economist

the downside surprise and the recent move in oil prices, we lowered our year-end fabio.ramos@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6525

2026 forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% (Figure 2).

Foodstuffs accounted for two-thirds of the downside surprise (-9bp)

Within the food group, fresh food was the main driver, contributing -5bp and

reversing part of the recent upside pressure. Core goods also surprised to the

downside, contributing -3bp, mainly driven by personal care products.

Most core measures improved at the margin

Except for labor-intensive services and the BCB’s underlying industrials measure, all

other core groups decelerated on a 3m saar basis. This reinforces the favorable

qualitative aspect of the June IPCA print (Figure 1). The diffusion index also fell

sharply, to 54% from 65% (Figure 8).

Short-term outlook

Our preliminary estimate for July is around 0.15-0.20% MoM, with further food

inflation deceleration likely. In August, we expect headline deflation driven by the