Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#121): The Changing Ownership of US..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#121): The Changing Ownership of US..."

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#121): The Changing Ownership of US Treasury

Debt Arend Kapteyn

Economist

arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Treasury ownership shifts away from central banks

One of the defining features of the US Treasury market is its remarkable ability to absorb

large shifts in ownership with surprisingly little impact on yields. Despite outstanding

Treasury debt nearly tripling since the GFC (from 32%GDP to 91% GDP), the market has

repeatedly found new buyers when others stepped back. The most important shift has

been the retreat of official-sector buyers: EM central banks accumulated significant FX

reserves (largely in the form of Treasuries) in the1990s and 2000s but that largely stalled

after 2014; they have absorbed virtually none of the increase in Treasury supply since the

GFC. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s Treasury holdings surged through

successive rounds of QE before declining again under QT. As a result, the combined

share of Treasuries held by foreign central banks and the Fed has fallen from roughly

55% in 2014 to just 28% today.

Filling the gap have been more price-sensitive private investors. Regulatory changes

drove increased Treasury holdings for Banks after the GFC and they became major

buyers during the pandemic as deposit inflows were recycled into securities, but that

demand faded with QT and a greater preference for liquidity/reserves post-SVB. More

enduring has been the financialization of household savings, which has driven a sharp

rise in the importance of mutual funds, ETFs, and money market funds. Together, these

vehicles now hold roughly 21% of outstanding Treasury debt, up from just 6% before