Iran disruption tracker #80: 'The cease fire is over', and paper markets had priced in peace!

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #80: 'The cease fire is over', and paper markets had priced in peace!

July 8, 2026

Summary: Day #131

What changed today vs yesterday:

●Iran struck three ships in the Strait on Monday and Tuesday, all along the Oman Coast versus Iran's approved

route. Among the vessels hit are a Qatari LNG Tanker (the "Al Rekeayyat") and a Saudi Oil tanker. Iran media said

that Qatar's LNG vessel had ignored warnings from the IRGC.

●CENTCOM launched retaliatory strikes on Iran on July 7 after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels

transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with explosions reported near Sirik, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas — the

sharpest escalation yet in the conflict and, combined with the same-day revocation of Iran's oil export license,

materially raises the risk premium embedded in Brent/oil.

●The US is revoking OFAC's General License X (the 60-day authorization for Iranian crude/petrochemical

exports issued June 22) in response to the July 7 tanker strikes, with a US official calling Iran's actions "wholly

unacceptable" and warning they'll be "met with consequences" — a material escalation that reverses the

sanctions-relief track from the June 17 MoU

●Qatar has denounced the strike on its LNG vessel. It also probably does not help peace negotiations between

the US and Iran where it participates as an intermediary along with Pakistan. Qatar holds Tehran "fully legally

responsible for this attack and for any resulting damages and consequences". The UAE has also strongly

commended the attack

●Iran informed the UN shipping agency (International Maritime Organization that it has the right control parts

of the Strait. It indicated that parts of the waterway flow through its sovereign jurisdiction, and it rejected a