Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment Tracker

Managed Care

Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment July 8, 2026

Tracker

●Updating our Medicaid Enrollment tracker – We update our work on state

level Medicaid enrollment, utilizing individual state Medicaid data to analyze

membership over time – see our recent report here. With this report / slides we

update for March / April data with 74% / 36% represented vs. previous 62% /

18% as of last report in mid-May, and we also introduce May data for 4 states Justin Lake, CFA

that have provided it. March and April data indicate no slowdown in attrition jlake@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9280

with states updated thru March down -65bps of enrollment vs. -57ps / View Justin’s Research

-59bps respectively in Jan / Feb w/key question from here being whether View Comp Table

acuity of risk pool is stabilizing despite continued attrition. For states that Dillon Nissan

have reported April enrollment capturing 36% of enrollment is down -45bps dnissan@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9281

in the month vs. -109bps in March (driven by enrollment declines in New York)

and compared to Jan / Feb of -71 / -48bps respectively. As we illustrate on page Ben Tenner

btenner@wolferesearch.com

9 – of the 15 states that updated enrollment for April AR and IN were down the (646) 582-9289

most at -2.0% month over month which was partially offset by several states

showing growth including NJ which grew for the 3rd month in a row at +0.7%,

NM up +0.8%, WV up +0.3% and MN up +0.2%.

○January Cohort – Thru Jan we saw an overall decline of -60bps m/m

from Dec-Jan and that this sample represents 96% of 2025 year-end

enrollment.

○February Cohort – For States through Feb we saw an overall decline of