Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly, 10 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Financial Sector: BofA financials weekly, 10 July 2026

Insurance, brokerage, and other nonbanks

The unusual share price performance of JPX

With the overall Japanese equity market remaining at elevated levels and some

previously overheated stocks, notably Kioxia, beginning to cool, JPX's share price has

become less likely to rise further. In addition, some investors may prefer Nomura,

believing it can benefit not only from Japanese equity trading activity but also from

more resilient businesses such as global FICC and IB. Another factor is that, until last

year, some investors had overly optimistic expectations regarding investment income

generated from cash collateral associated with derivatives transactions at JSCC. In our

view, much of that excessive optimism has now faded. However, investors who have

come to recognize that the earnings contribution from this business is not particularly

large may still be inclined to sell the stock. That said, based on Exhibit 73, we believe it

is highly unlikely that trading value will decline to the level seen in FY3/26 3Q, even if

market activity moderates from current levels. In our view, as long as trading value

remains above the FY3/26 4Q level, JPX shares should be regarded as undervalued.

Credit Saison (8253): Analysing the case for an additional investment in

Suruga Bank 2026-07-10

We present scenario analysis for additional investment in Suruga Bank in the above

report including potential dilusion. If Credit Saison can borrow money to some extent,

dilusion effect from issuing equity will not be large. Suruga Bank remains subject to a

business improvement order. We believe the likelihood of an additional investment

before the order is lifted is relatively low. Nevertheless, we conducted scenario analysis