Component Signals: Cloud capex to rise 78% YoY in 2026; stay positive on AI-related component makers

Research evidence excerpt

Component Signals: Cloud capex to rise 78% YoY in 2026; stay positive on AI-related component makers

Price objective basis & risk

Ibiden (4062 / IBIDF)

Our PO for Ibiden is ¥29,800. The PO is based on a P/E of 50x our FY3/29 estimate, a

level well above the historical peak of 34x during previous earnings expansion phases.

However, we believe such a premium multiple is justified in the near term, as the share

price already appears to be discounting the company's medium-term profit target for

FY3/31. We forecast EPS CAGR of 48% over the next five years (excluding one-off

factors). Profitability in the CPU package business for a major North American

semiconductor maker is also improving, and the earnings trend is becoming increasingly

stable. While growth in GPU package substrates remains the core investment theme, we

also expect future growth from package substrates for ASIC and the ramp up of the

Gama plant for leading-edge substrates. Downside risks to our PO include (1) a larger-

than-expected decline in IC package demand due to data center market weakness or

contraction in the PC market, and (2) intensified price competition in the GPU package

substrate market.

TDK (6762 / TTDKF / TTDKY)

Our PO for TDK is ¥4,400 ($28.39/ADR), based on a P/E of 32x our FY3/28 estimate.

This corresponds to the peak multiple achieved during previous earnings expansion

cycles. In addition to (1) the medium-term to long-term expansion potential of the

battery business, (2) profitability upside in passive components, particularly in

automotive applications, and (3) an improving profitability outlook for magnetic

application products, expansion in AI related businesses is becoming increasingly

evident. We therefore believe achieving a multiple above the historical peak range is