Murphy USA Inc: 2Q26 preview; raising PO to $625

Research evidence excerpt

Murphy USA Inc: 2Q26 preview; raising PO to $625

CFA

emphasized maintaining operational nimbleness, reacting to daily market conditions, and Research Analyst

optimizing performance. Importantly, mgmt reiterated that fuel volatility was only part BofAS +1 646 743 0175

of the story, noting that last year’s initiatives to optimize the cost structure—both at the peter.galbo@bofa.com

store level and at the home office—have created a stronger earnings foundation. Christian Junquera

Research Analyst

Reiterate Neutral, $625 price objective BofAS+1 646 855 5195

We increase our PO to $625 (+$25), based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.7x (vs. 10.7x christian.junquera@bofa.com

previously), given continued fuel volatility which should positively impact MUSA’s fuel

profit margins. Our valuation is 20-25% above (prior +10-15%) its LT avg of 9.3x and

compares to its 3-yr avg of 10.7x. Despite its stock outperformance since the start of Stock Data

the Iran conflict in late February, we see near term earnings upside due to its EDLP

Price 584.74 USD

pricing strategy, increased fuel volatility, and ability to leverage its operating model.

Price Objective 625.00 USD

Risks: Economic pressure on low-income consumers remains a headwind.

Date Established 10-Jul-2026

Investment Opinion B-2-7

Estimates (Dec) (US$) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

52-Week Range 345.23 USD - 636.05 USD

EPS 24.11 24.10 33.50 30.07 31.64

EPS Change (YoY) -5.4% 0% 39.0% -10.2% 5.2% Mrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out 10,801 USD / 18.5

Consensus EPS (Bloomberg) 32.54 30.00 31.99 (mn)

Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) 32.29 29.71 32.00 Free Float 91.2%

DPS 1.77 2.13 2.48 2.82 3.19 Average Daily Value (mn) 198.52 USD

BofA Ticker / Exchange MUSA / ASE

Valuation (Dec) Bloomberg / Reuters MUSA US / MUSA.N

P/E 24.2x 24.2x 17.4x 19.4x 18.4x