U.S. Business and Information Services: Previewing 2Q26 for MSCI, MCO & SPGI; Issuance & indices to drive EPS beats

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U.S. Business and Information Services: Previewing 2Q26 for MSCI, MCO & SPGI; Issuance & indices to drive EPS beats

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U.S. Business and Information Services

Previewing 2Q26 for MSCI, MCO & SPGI;

Issuance & indices to drive EPS beats

Price Objective Change

Constructive on 2Q earnings setup for MCO/MSCI/SPGI 10 July 2026

We preview 2Q26 for Moody’s (MCO), MSCI Inc (MSCI), and S&P Global (SPGI). We are Equity

constructive on the setup for 2Q26 earnings primarily on better than expected debt United States

issuance trends (see our tracker on pg. 6) which we see as a source of upside for Business & Information Services

MCO/SPGI and very strong index inflows for MSCI that we believe will drive above Curtis Nagle, CFA

consensus earnings (we are also constructive on SPGI index trends for 2Q). Key investor Research Analyst

topics/questions for 2Q include: 1) the degree of back half conservativism baked in FY26 BofAS+1 646 855 2939

guide given a still volatile macro but solid 1H (we expect guide to maintained); 2) c.nagle@bofa.com

updates on adoption, consumption and monetization trends for AI-enabled data feeds Ryan Rivera

Research Analyst

and workflows (all very early stage but improving KPIs a plus for investor sentiment) and; BofAS

3) share buyback activity given strong FCF and valuation below historic avgs. ryan.rivera4@bofa.com

MSCI: Expect 2Q beat another record qtr of index flows

MSCI reports 2Q26 on 7/21. We expect another quarter of strong Index performance HSD: High-single digit

that is likely to drive upside to Street earnings given high incremental margins (~80%)

KPI: Key performance indicator

and we raise our ests. We also remain focused on investments across private markets,

custom index, and data solutions, where mgmt.