Metals & Mining - India: 1Q preview: Higher realizations to support steel and non-ferrous

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Metals & Mining - India: 1Q preview: Higher realizations to support steel and non-ferrous

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Metals & Mining - India

1Q preview: Higher realizations to support

steel and non-ferrous

Price Objective Change

Steel: Profitability to improve QoQ on higher realizations 10 July 2026

1QFY27 India EBITDA/t for domestic steel producers is likely to improve sequentially, Equity

driven by higher realizations, partly offset by (i) higher coking coal costs and (ii) elevated India

freight, FX and flux costs due to the West Asia conflict. Overall, we expect profitability to Metals & Mining

improve by INR1,000-2,350/t QoQ, while volume growth should remain healthy (+8-11%

Bharat Subramanian >>

YoY). We expect sequential EBITDA weakness at TSE: (i) Despite a EUR80/t increase in Research Analyst

realizations, Netherlands profitability is likely to moderate to INR465/t from INR3,675/t BofAS India

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in 4QFY26 due to higher raw material costs and adverse operating leverage following bharat.subramanian@bofa.com

the temporary shutdown of the Direct Sheet Plant; (ii) UK losses are likely to narrow

QoQ, supported by higher realizations (GBP80/t QoQ increase). While India's finished

steel consumption grew 8% YoY in 1Q, infrastructure demand has slowed, reflected in a

17% decline in long steel prices over the past few months. In contrast, flat steel prices

have remained resilient, supported by firm international pricing and safeguard duties. We Glossary

continue to prefer flat steel over long steel producers. JSTL remains our top pick, given it CoP – Cost of Production

is well positioned to benefit from India's robust long-term steel consumption growth.

HNDL – Hindalco

Non-Ferrous: Margins to improve QoQ on higher LME HZ – Hindustan Zinc