BofA on USA: June retail sales: a truly Messi month

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BofA on USA: June retail sales: a truly Messi month

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BofA on USA

June retail sales: a truly Messi month

We forecast a robust June retail sales report 10 July 2026

Total card spending per HH, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was Macro

up 6.3% y/y in June. On a m/m SA basis, BAC card spending per HH increased by 0.6%. United States

Within retail, most categories registered solid increases (Exhibit 3).

We forecast strong June retail sales … with low conviction

We expect the Census Bureau’s June retail sales report to come in above consensus. We

project increases of 0.3% and 0.9% in retail sales ex-autos and the control group (retail

sales ex-autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, Exhibit 1), respectively. However,

note that there were four potentially large crosswinds to retail spending in June. And we Aditya Bhave

have low conviction on how they netted out. US Economist BofAS

+1 646 855 9929

The biggest World Cup ever aditya.bhave@bofa.com

The BAC card data don’t capture spending by tourists (card data is US HH only). Tourism ShrutiUS EconomistMishra

Economics projected that tourists will spend about $6bn in the US during the World Cup. BofAS

+1 646 855 1040

We assume about 3/4 of that spending would have happened in June, during the group smishra44@bofa.com

stage games. But most of it would likely have been on transportation, lodging and US Economics

tickets, rather than retail. Therefore, we adjust ex-auto retail sales by just 0.2pp. For the BofAS

control group, which omits restaurants and bars, we assume a negligible effect. See Team Page for List of Analysts

Prime Day and related retail promotions pulled forward HH: household

Prime Day and related retail promotions were pulled forward into June this year (23rd to