Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: Strait closing again?….who benefits?

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream: Strait closing again?….who benefits?

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Integrateds, Refining, and Midstream

Strait closing again?….who benefits?

Industry Overview

Strait may be closing again, oil price back up to mid $70’s 08 July 2026

Over the past 3 weeks, crude Strait of Hormuz traffic has averaged 6.2mbd, about 37% Equity

of pre-Iran conflict flows (Feb 26 avg 16.5mbd). Another 5-7mbd is flowing from United States

alternate routes, suggesting we had in total averaged 12mbd in recent weeks exiting the Oil & Gas

Middle East. However, in the past 48 hours, Trump has declared the cease fire “over” Jean Ann Salisbury

and revoked the temporary lifting of sanctions on Iran’s oil. Brent Price for 2026 rose Research Analyst

from $72/bbl to $77/bbl and in 2027 $71/bbl to $74/bbl. 2026 TTF price also rose from BofAS+1 646 855-1470

$14.24 to $16.3/mmbtu. jeanann.salisbury@bofa.com

James Larkin, CFA

Oil sentiment poor due to 2027 oversupply concerns ResearchBofAS Analyst

In recent weeks, as strait traffic has ramped, medium term oil price sentiment has faded +1 646 855 0116

james.r.larkin@bofa.com

dramatically as concerns about Chinese demand and announced OPEC + UAE adds

Conor Fitzpatrick

weighed on 2027 balances, with the potential to add 2.5+mbd more than the pre-Iran Research Analyst

conflict levels. However, outside of the Middle East, there is limited appetite or potential BofAS

+1 646 855 5711

for production to ramp in the 2027/28 timeframe, with Canada still limited by pipeline, conor.fitzpatrick@bofa.com

Venezuela requiring significant investment, and US rig count restrained. While both Naomi Marfatia

Saudi and the UAE are adding alternate pipeline capacity, they cannot fully remove Strait Research Analyst BofAS