Arctic: Nivika - Higher buybacks drive modest estimate revisions

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Nivika - Higher buybacks drive modest estimate revisions

Nivika SPONSORED RESEARCH Buy Hold

NIVIB SS | Real Estate | Equity Company Update | 07 July 2026 | 07:31 Sell

Higher buybacks drive modest estimate revisions Financials and estimates changes Target NA

Nivika will publish its Q2/26 report on 9 July. Ahead of the report, we make only limited Key Figures (SEKm) Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26e Dec-27e Dec-28e Highlights

changes to our estimates, primarily reflecting a larger share buyback than previously Recommendation Not Rated

Revenue 923.2 788.0 889.8 936.8 959.1 Target Price NA

anticipated. The higher number of repurchased shares lifts our IFPM/share estimates by

Net operating income 655.1 577.0 656.4 703.9 730.9 Share Price SEK 37.2

approximately 2–4% over the forecast period, while our absolute earnings forecasts remain EBITDA 578.3 523.0 600.6 645.7 671.3 Market cap (SEKm) 3,567

largely unchanged. Following our updated estimates, we adjust our fair value range to IFPM 266.4 256.0 322.7 359.4 368.7 Number of shares (SEKm) 96

SEK 37–60 (39–60), reflecting a somewhat lower downside valuation, while our overall EPS (SEK) 2.1 2.7 4.9 4.4 4.5

investment case remains intact 12 months share price performance:

Cash 365.3 208.0 299.0 106.8 172.3 58 Performance (%) 3M 6M 1Y

Estimate changes mainly reflect higher share buybacks NIVIBOMX SS -6.1%-6.5% -14.9%-15.6% -8.9%-10.4% Total equity 5,556.2 5,754.0 5,973.8 6,299.1 6,632.0 55

The main driver behind our estimate revisions is Nivika's completed share buyback programme, Net interest bearing debt 5,531.6 6,893.0 6,737.9 6,580.3 6,412.1 52

under which the company repurchased almost 5m Class B shares for approximately SEK 188m.

The Board has also announced its intention to cancel more than 5.3m treasury shares, reducing Adj.