COST - The Burden of Expectations—A Strong But Light June Comp Print; A Justifiable Premium But We Stay NEUTRAL-Rated

Research evidence excerpt

COST - The Burden of Expectations—A Strong But Light June Comp Print; A Justifiable Premium But We Stay NEUTRAL-Rated

July 9, 2026

John Heinbockel john.heinbockel@guggenheimpartners.com COST - The Burden of Expectations—A Strong But

212 381 4135 Light June Comp Print; A Justifiable Premium But We

Steven Forbes, CFA, CPA

steven.forbes@guggenheimpartners.com Stay NEUTRAL-Rated

212 381 4188

Julio Marquez Key Messages: Yesterday’s modest share price outperformance on a risk-off day gave julio.marquez@guggenheimpartners.com way to after-hours weakness following healthy, but lower-than-expected and sequentially 212 823 6605

softer reported and core June comps and total sales growth. The slight shortfall means

Jacob Nivasch nothing, fundamentally, and does not alter the likelihood of a decade-plus, 10-12%

jacob.nivasch@guggenheimpartners.com EBITDA growth runway, but in the context of the elevated expectations that accompany

212 338 8837 the sector’s highest multiple, 28x 2026E—see Exhibit 1—it could prolong the recent

Max Horowitz laggard status, especially if fuel prices resume a downward trajectory. Any material

max.horowitz@guggenheimpartners.com acceleration in non-North America, especially China, new unit expansion would be the

212 518 9974 most impactful catalyst to a re-rating, but there is still limited visibility into this at the

present time with a potential 2-3% special dividend a more temporal benefit. Accordingly,

we stay NEUTRAL-Rated.

COST NEUTRAL Healthy But Slightly Light June Core Comps. June core comps remained industry-

Costco Wholesale Corporation leading, although slightly below our expectations, as a pronounced currency flip and

Sector: Consumables Retail moderating fuel prices sequentially pressured reported sales growth. As shown in Exhibit