North American pressures drive EPS guide to lower end of range

Research evidence excerpt

North American pressures drive EPS guide to lower end of range

July 09, 2026

▪ PEP reported a mixed 2Q26 as the company faced pressure in North America, with “softer

than anticipated results.” Despite challenges, YTD global organic volume increased at the highest

rate since 2022, and PFNA gained volume share in a challenging market backdrop as PEP

continues to play offense:

➢ Mixed results vs. Street, with org sales +2.4% vs. Street +2.7% but EPS of $2.20 ahead of

Street $2.19. OM of 16.8% trailed Street 17.2% and was down 40 bps YoY driven by

productivity savings and effective net pricing

➢ Results in North America “softer than anticipated” in 2Q26 as U.S. food and beverage

category performance moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to rising inflationary

pressures, particularly gas. Noted a slowdown of conversion of traffic into purchases in

impulse channels, where there is a greater correlation with gas prices

➢ Expect improving trends in the U.S. in 2H26, but at a more moderate pace than anticipated

entering 2Q26. International good start to summer, with strong trends expected in 2H26.

“Line of sight” to the low-end of LT +4-6% algo in 2H26

➢ AFH remains a priority in U.S. and International. Slowed in 2Q, but should accelerate in 2H

➢ Expect higher input cost inflation in 2H vs. 1H, but productivity savings and refund claims for

tariffs should help mitigate and allow PEP to play offense

▪ PEP has made progress with its portfolio changes, but it still faces a multi-year lift to reignite

the top-line:

➢ Challenges include GLP-1s, changes to SNAP, and shifting preferences. SNAP waiver

states underperforming but expected

➢ Weakness in North America in 2Q primarily driven by volumes, with PFNA volumes flat vs.

Street +1.9% and PBNA volumes -2% vs. Street -2%