In case you missed it, Aussie Most Read Publications 30 Jun to 6 Jul 2026

Research evidence excerpt

In case you missed it, Aussie Most Read Publications 30 Jun to 6 Jul 2026

ted ~A$2.0bn post-tax synergy estimate representing upside we are yet to verify; and 3) for GMD,

the stock impact is more nuanced – the deal screens strongly on strategic logic and price, but comes with ~67% share count

expansion, integration of a lower-grade production base, and a synergy case we are yet to test; we see nothing in the

announcement to change our view. We rate GMD OW; A$7.40 PT.

Suncorp Group Ltd (Siddharth Parameswaran) (SUN AU, N, PT A$19.40)

Model Update: 4Q26 mark to market

We have updated our forecasts for SUN to reflect movements in investment markets over the 3 months to 30 June 2026. The

changes are summarised below, with the earnings changes table overleaf.

Genesis Minerals/Regis Resources (Jonathon Sharp)

GMD interlopes for Vault; stronger logic than RRL/VAU and accretive on risked synergies

GMD has delivered a binding superior proposal to acquire Vault, offering 0.7629 GMD shares plus A$0.475 cash per VAU

share. This implies A$5.27/sh, valuing Vault equity at ~A$5.6bn, a 14.5% premium to the mark-to-market RRL offer and 17.2%

to Vault’s undisturbed price. Vault has deemed the proposal superior, with Regis’s matching right expiring 13 July. Key

takeaways: 1) the strategic logic looks stronger than RRL/VAU given the proximity of KOTH, Tower Hill and Laverton, with

GMD using higher-rated scrip to acquire a lower-multiple earnings base; 2) the deal screens ~33% EPS accretive in FY28,

including only A$50m of post-tax synergies, but fades to broadly neutral in FY29 as GMD’s own earnings step up; and 3) while

GMD discloses ~A$1.5bn of synergies, we risk-weight the number rather than give full credit upfront. Even on risked synergies,

the deal still looks accretive.