European Banks Daily 10 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Banks Daily 10 July 2026

mes:Model update

Michael Cho (1-212) 622-3619

We are updating our Raymond James model (RJF) ahead of the F3Q26 earnings release. Our

F3Q26 estimates increase slightly behind better market conditions. That said, we lower

assumptions for investment banking revenue near-term and increase our near-term expense

assumptions (market related and recruiting). We expect adj. operating margins to remain in the

~20% area. Separately, we think balance sheet growth remains modest (+1%) while NIM is

mostly stable q/q. We are modeling NII + RJBDP fees to be up 1% q/q in F3Q26. The company

data released through May indicate $1.85tn of Private Client AUA, $55bn of bank loans, and

$56bn of client domestic cash sweep and ESP. Following our model update, our Dec 2026 price

target is $175, and we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Stifel:Model Update

We are updating our Stifel Financial (SF) model ahead of the 2Q26 earnings release. Our 2Q26

estimates come down slightly primarily as a result of lower investment banking assumptions.

That said, we are modeling a modest sequential progression of improving in activity levels in the

back half of 2026 and into 2027. Our expense assumptions are largely unchanged and we model

pre-tax margins of 22%. The company data released through May indicate $580bn of total client

assets, $239bn of fee-based client assets, $24bn of bank loans (net), and $25bn of client money

market and insured products. Following our model update, our Dec 2026 price target is $80, and

we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

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Publication Across Key Themes

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