J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 10 Jul 26 Brazil Oil & Gas; Latam Cement Data Points; LatAm Pulp & Paper; Mexico Airports; Direcional and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 10 Jul 26 Brazil Oil & Gas; Latam Cement Data Points; LatAm Pulp & Paper; Mexico Airports; Direcional and More

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 10 July 2026

Top Stories

Brazil Oil & Gas (Milene Clifford Carvalho)

Export Tax Extension: Negative Headline, Limited Impact - Reiterate OW on PBR and PRIO

In an unexpected move, the Brazilian government extended the 12% crude oil export tax established under MP 1,340 for 60

days - with the possibility of an additional 30-day extension - citing renewed volatility in global oil markets and the need to

safeguard domestic fuel supply. The decision runs counter to recent signals that the measure was approaching its end, and it

was implemented through a mechanism that raises some procedural questions, extending the tax beyond the framework that

originally enabled it, which effectively lapses today. From a sector perspective, the extension is negative for crude producers in

the near term, particularly PRIO and Petrobras, though we estimate a relatively limited impact on valuation (-1.1% for PRIO and

-0.7% for Petrobras, assuming a full-quarter effect). Importantly, we continue to view both names constructively, underpinned

by strong production growth outlooks and attractive cash generation.

Latam Cement Data Points (Adrian E Huerta)

Cem Prices +1.7% m/m in June, Strong Beat vs Expectations Following Soft Apr/May Prints; Pricing

Trends Rebound Into 2Q End

Mexico cement prices increased +1.7% m/m in June (+3.8% y/y), well above our +0.3% expectation, following May’s -

0.2% m/m print (+2.2% y/y). That said, YTD prices are up +3.6% y/y, suggesting the industry has still been able to maintain a

reasonable level of price increases despite some volatility in recent months.