Thai Retailers 2Q26 Preview: Retail Rotation: Non-Food Leads the 2Q26 Recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Thai Retailers 2Q26 Preview: Retail Rotation: Non-Food Leads the 2Q26 Recovery

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

10 July 2026

Thai Retailers

2Q26 Preview: Retail Rotation: Non-Food Leads the

2Q26 Recovery

The Thai Retail Sector has appreciated 4-6% in the past 1-3 months (vs the SET Consumer, Healthcare

AC+3-7%), as the share prices of non-food retailers have begun to bottom out on a Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA

shallower decline in SSSG. This is consistent with our expectation for stronger (66-2) 684-2679

earnings growth for non-food retailers (+19% y/y in 2Q26) versus food retailers kae.pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

(flat), based on JPMe. Key narratives shaping 2Q26 performance. 1) Middle- JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

East conflict: While both food and non-food retailers benefited from frontloading Jeanette Yutan

demand in Apr-26, non-food retailers captured more inventory gains from the ASP (63-2) 8878-1188

jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

hike, thanks to lower regulatory pressure to maintain prices and longer inventory J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

cycles. The surge in transportation costs appears to have weighed more heavily on

the margins of food retailers. 2) Thai Help Thai + (copayment) stimulus has

dragged SSSG of food retailers by ~1pct on average in Jun-26 vs the baseline.

Although the impact was less severe than earlier feared, such programs will run for

a full-quarter in 3Q26 vs only one month in 2Q26. 3) El Niño: Impacts remain

sporadic at the onset of the transition phase. The hotter temperatures benefited

SSSG in both food retailers (beverage sales) and non-food retailers (cooling items

in Apr-62). However, unlike most prior El Niño periods, rainfall was more frequent

in Jun-26, disrupting customer traffic to modern trade.