2Q26 Medicaid Enrollment by Payor & State; Slight Attrition Continues to Play Out as Guided For HUM & CVS Data Most Positive vs. Some Concern at MOH

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Medicaid Enrollment by Payor & State; Slight Attrition Continues to Play Out as Guided For HUM & CVS Data Most Positive vs. Some Concern at MOH

Healthcare Services

EQUITY RESEARCH Industry Report

July 6, 2026

2Q26 Medicaid Enrollment by Payor & State; Slight

Companies mentioned

Ticker Price Rating Target Attrition Continues to Play Out as Guided For HUM &

CNC $67.86 Overweight $60.00 CVS Data Most Positive vs. Some Concern at MOH

CVS $104.72 Overweight $100.00

ELV $417.89 Overweight $400.00 2Q26 partial Medicaid enrollment data leaves us most confident in

HUM $396.75 Neutral $264.00 HUM & CVS membership trends and with some concerns around MOH.

MOH $229.87 Neutral $209.00 Nationwide disenrollment trends have not materially accelerated, though

UNH $425.36 Overweight $440.00

we see some divergence in payer-specific patterns. 2Q26 data is not yet

Research Analysts: fully mature, as we've tracked only 39% of May 2026 data available on

Sarah James average, so we view our reads as early. Broadly, the Medicaid enrollment

212-829-5203 environment throughout 2Q26 is in-line with payor outlooks for slight Sarah.James@cantor.com

attrition & suggests state actions taken to prepare for 1/1/27 work Gabie Ingoglia

212-610-2238 requirements have not yet impacted enrollment.

Gabie.Ingoglia@cantor.com

For our Excel dataset, please reach out directly.

State-level attrition in 2Q26 remains well below redetermination peaks,

though IN & CA remain on our watch list in the quarter. Several states have

rolled out policies impacting the Medicaid population either in the form

of tightening eligibility (i.e., IN, CA, D.C.) or raising procedure-specific prior

auth (PA), but we are seeing notable enrollment declines in 2Q26 in only 2

of those states, IN & CA.