North American Insurance: Model Updates Following Pre-Announcements

Research evidence excerpt

North American Insurance: Model Updates Following Pre-Announcements

Equity Research

8 July 2026

North American Insurance

Model Updates Following Pre-

Announcements

VOYA and FG pre-announced alternative investment income North America Insurance/Life

expectations for 2Q26, and IFC pre-released estimated POSITIVE Unchanged

catastrophe losses and large losses. We have updated models North America Insurance/Non-Life

to account for this newly released data. NEUTRALUnchanged

North America Insurance/Life

This afternoon, several companies pre-released information regarding alternative investment Alex Scott, CFA

income and catastrophe losses, among other things. Namely, FG and VOYA pre-released +1 212 526 1561

expected alternative investment income relative to their long-term expectations, while IFC pre- alex.scott@barclays.com

BCI, USannounced catastrophe losses and large losses. In addition, we have refined alternative

investment income estimates in our CRBG model. Anling Chen

+1 212 526 5995

IFC: The company reported a 2Q26 catastrophe loss estimate of C$416m (pre-tax, net of anling.chen@barclays.com

reinsurance), which was well above our C$197m estimate and C$308m Street consensus. BCI, US

However, we note the result was broadly consistent with management's 1Q26 commentary, Justin Lee, CFA

which implies roughly C$400m of catastrophe losses based on its C$1.2b full year cat loss +1 212 526 0912

outlook with a third anticipated in each of 2Q and 3Q. Canada Property (C$252 million) and justin.lee@barclays.com

UK&I (C$121 million) accounted for nearly 90% of total catastrophe losses. Canada losses were BCI, US

driven by severe storms causing flooding, wind, and water damage, while UK&I losses were

North America Insurance/Non-Lifeprimarily related to commercial fires.