Coinbase Global, Inc.: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Another Cold Summer

Research evidence excerpt

Coinbase Global, Inc.: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Another Cold Summer

Equity Research

U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

9 July 2026

Coinbase Global, Inc.

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Another

Cold Summer

Volumes generally weakened again in Q2, while USDC market COIN UNDERWEIGHT

cap declined. With a full quarter of data largely in hand, we Unchanged

U.S. Brokers, Asset

update our model and shake out ~3% below Street on adj. Managers & Exchanges POSITIVE

Unchanged

EBITDA, and lower into Q3 given the run rate so far in July. Price Target USD 99.00

lowered -7% from USD 107.00

Overview: Spot trading volumes continue to decline Q/Q, and while June showed a bit of a Price (07-Jul-26) USD 163.51

spike in volumes, the run-rate into July remains quite muted. With a full quarter of data in hand, Potential Upside/Downside -39.5%

we update our model and shake out 3% below Street on adj. EBITDA, primarily driven by lower Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

blockchain rewards and institutional trading revenues, though we think consensus estimates do

not yet fully reflect available market data. Trends appear worse so far into Q3, where the July Market Cap (USD mn) 43078

exchange volume run rate looks more like April/May. Separately, while many strategic initiatives Shares Outstanding (mn) 263.46

are underway at Coinbase, we continue to believe that these developments will take time to Free Float (%) 97.10

meaningfully impact the P&L, and the overall business continues to depend on the overall 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 10.6

crypto trading environment. One exception is likely prediction markets, where broader Dividend Yield (%) N/A

exchange volumes (e.g., Kalshi, whose contracts Coinbase offers) have shown a meaningful Return on Equity TTM (%) 6.69