European Autos & Auto Parts: On The Road in China: (Even) softer demand and channel checks reaffirm our scepticism

Research evidence excerpt

European Autos & Auto Parts: On The Road in China: (Even) softer demand and channel checks reaffirm our scepticism

Equity Research

9 July 2026

European Autos & Auto Parts

On The Road in China: (Even)

softer demand and channel checks

European Autos & Auto Partsreaffirm our scepticism

NEGATIVE

We just returned from China. Retail/wholesale volumes European Autos & Auto Parts

Henning Cosmanremain very weak at -23%/-5% YoY in June. EU OEM channel

check indicated progress for VW/Audi, while BMW still seems +44henning.cosman@barclays.com(0)20 3134 3106

challenged. We see our Negative EU Autos Industry View Barclays, UK

(partly predicated on persistent China weakness) as Erwann Dagorne

+33 (0)1 4458 3664

reaffirmed. erwann.dagorne@barclays.com

BBI, Paris

Wei Jia

On The Road in China: EU OEM JV wholesale still very +44wei.jia@barclays.com(0)20 3555 6740

weak in June and dealer profitability appears to Barclays, UK

remain an issue

Barclays EU Autos Negative Industry view is to a large extent informed by persistent China

weakness: Our Negative Industry view on EU Autos is predicated on several structural and

cyclical headwinds facing the industry, including China profit pool erosion, China OEM exports

into international markets, US tariffs, cost/raw material inflation, emission regulation,

geopolitics, affordability, and Mobility-as-a-Service disruption (also see our 2026 sector

Outlook: Downgrades and de-ratings coming...). At the same time, exposure to secondary

growth opportunities such as data centres, AI, humanoids, defence, space or robotaxis, have

selectively led to share price exuberance across a number of Global Autos stocks – but EU OEMs

are (for the most part) not exhibiting the corresponding exposure to attract such excitement, in

our view.