Fervo Energy: Proof in the Numbers, Cape Is on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Fervo Energy: Proof in the Numbers, Cape Is on Track

Equity Research

U.S. Energy Services & Technology

9 July 2026

Fervo Energy

Proof in the Numbers, Cape Is on

Track

FRVO shares sold off on a recent short report questioning the FRVO OVERWEIGHT

POSITIVEviability of its technology despite Project Red results in April U.S.TechnologyEnergy Services &

confirming water/heat assumptions and drilling times at Price Target USD 48.00

Cape 2 better than expected. We host CEO Tim Latimer for a Price (08-Jul-26) USD 23.57 Potential Upside/Downside +103.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchwebinar on Monday to discuss the progress.

Fervo Energy (FRVO) shares have sold off ~17% (vs. 0% S&P 500) over the past five days, U.S. Energy Services & Technology

following the publication of Enverus Intelligence Research's (EIR) 22 June 2026 note arguing the J. David Anderson, CFA

+1 212 526 4016stock is dramatically overvalued relative to a bottom up net asset value. Having worked through

jdavid.anderson@barclays.com

the methodology, we take a number of issues with the underlying assumptions, which relies on

BCI, US

a probability weighted NAV, immediately taking a 25% "first of a kind" technology haircut.

However, the bigger reason for the selloff, in our view, are several risks issues raised in the Andre Schlatter

+1 212 526 6368report, including water loss, thermal drawdown, seismicity potential, rig availability and power

andre.schlatter@barclays.com

supply chain. Notably, these are all risks we highlighted in our initiation report (except rig

availability, with which we don't agree) and the report does not introduce any new information,

all of which the company has addressed in great detail previously. Eddie Kim

+1 212 526 9920