Morning Expresso – Australasia "Wednesday 08 July 2026"

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia "Wednesday 08 July 2026"

Regis Healthcare - Proceeding with care

Highly attractive sector dynamics overshadowed by near-term risk Healthcare Providers

Demand from ageing baby boomers in the next decade is expected to place growing pressure on a

system already operating at near-record occupancy, while development activity has been subdued. The

widening imbalance and the new Aged Care Act support EBITDA growth and very strong cash flows RATING: Neutral

from Refundable Accommodation Deposits (RADs). However, we see downside to FY27 consensus TARGET: A$7.00

estimates as extra services revenue is expected to fall with the Higher Everyday Living Fee (HELF)

transition, and risk the annual AN-ACC (Government care funding) increase could again fall short. This

is seen as a short-term headwind given the need to stimulate investment, with any funding changes PRICE: A$6.57

likely to favour incumbent operators in the medium term. We initiate coverage with a Neutral rating MCAP: A$1.99b/US$1.38b

and a PT of A$7.00.

Incumbent providers set to benefit from rising accommodation prices

Regis is one of Australia's largest residential aged care providers, operating 70+ homes with >8,000 EPS ESTIMATES:

operational places. The market is tight with many facilities operating at their theoretical maximum and 06/26E: 0.18

~3.3k public hospital patients waiting for a bed. This dynamic is driving up RAD prices, with the trend 06/27E: 0.22

likely to continue even in the face of a residential property correction given the shortage. Simply 06/28E: 0.27

holding RAD rates would boost retention and add $400m+ of cash inflow as residents turn over, all else RIC: REG.AX

equal. BBG: REG AU

Upside from policy initiatives to stimulate investment in new capacity