Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#119): The state of global house prices" Kapteyn

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#119): The state of global house prices" Kapteyn

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#119): The state of global house prices

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

Global house prices (in real terms) have largely moved sideways the past 3y arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

The Bank for International Settlements maintains a useful long-run database of global

residential property prices, helping identify trends and outliers. The latest quarterly

release suggests that, in real terms, global house prices have remained broadly stagnant

over the past three years: on a GDP-weighted basis, prices are down 6%, while on a

median basis they are up 3%. This follows a 27–29% increase between 2010 and 2022.

The recent stall is largely driven by advanced economies. Roughly three-quarters of DMs

saw real house price declines over the past three years (the DM median is -4%), as

consumer inflation outpaced house price inflation and synchronized central bank

tightening cycles created headwinds for borrowers. New Zealand and Canada stand out

for particularly large declines (alongside Sweden and Finland). In EM (median change

+15%), the largest declines have been in China and Romania. The largest increases

across DM and EM have been recorded in Turkey (+43%) and Portugal (+33%).

Whether real house prices are the right metric, however, depends on the question being

asked. Deflating house prices by CPI (as the BIS does) is useful if the objective is to assess

whether housing has become more expensive relative to other goods and services

households consume. It is not necessarily the right benchmark for affordability, housing

wealth accumulation, or first-time buyer access, for which measures such as disposable