European Insurance News & Views "Gjensidige 2Q26 preview" Lu

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance News & Views "Gjensidige 2Q26 preview" Lu

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

European Insurance News & Views Equities

Europe including UKGjensidige 2Q26 preview

Financial

Qian Lu

Headline: Gjensidige 2Q26 preview Analyst

qian-za.lu@ubs.com

Gjensidige is due to report 2Q26 results on 13th July. We set out our expectations and +44-20-7567 4657

compare our estimates to company-collected consensus ahead of the event. Will Hardcastle, CFA

Analyst

will.hardcastle@ubs.com

UBS Summary:

+44-20-7567 9763

Nasib Ahmed, FIA

We are 2% ahead of cons. 2Q26E earnings, which looks to be mainly driven by financial Analyst

results as our ISR forecast is -2% below cons. nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8231

Revenue growth: we forecast 6.4% headline revenue growth, -1% below cons.,

noting FX was a headwind to growth and some pressure on commercial lines due Chloe Ryan

to competition; Associate Analyst

chloe.ryan@ubs.com

Combined ratio: we forecast a Group combined ratio of 81.5%, 30bps worse vs +44-20-7567 3505

cons. Our underlying frequency loss ratio (UFLR) of 63.5% is c.10bps better than

cons. on a discounted basis, excluding discounting we are 10bps worse. We note a

wide dispersion of cons. on the UFLR forecast with a c.11ppts difference between

max and min cons. submissions, likely to be driven by 1. diverging views on the PY

base which was distorted by unusually favourable claims pattern; 2. potentially

inconsistent treatment of Danish Workers Comp provisions (UBSe net impact

c.4ppts of COR) which should be excluded from the UFLR calculation;

Investment: we are 19% (c.NOK 160m) ahead of cons. financial results; interest

rates trending lower and credit spread tightening in the quarter boosted returns