Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 130" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 130" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 130

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

US-Iran interim deal "over" Analyst

US President Trump today declared the interim agreement with Iran is "over" (link) after henri.patricot@ubs.com

new strikes. The US hit 80 targets in Iran in retaliation for the recent attacks on tankers +33-14-888 3033

in the Strait while Iran targeted US military bases in the region, including in Bahrain and Nayoung Kim

Kuwait (link). The US has also revoked the sanctions waiver on Iranian oil (link). We note Analyst

that the US blockade on Iran-linked vessels has not been reinstated for the time nayoung.kim@ubs.com

being. This would have more of an impact on flows, in our view, as the lifting of +44-20-7568 4010

sanctions for only a 60-day period was not really sufficient to attract many new Joshua Stone

buyers. The US President has warned of potential further attacks on Iran on Wednesday Analyst

(link), which could raise risk further for flows in the very near term. There are further joshua.stone@ubs.com

reports of some tankers turning back after approaching the Strait (link). +44-20-7901 5588

Josh Silverstein

Hormuz crossings up but skewed outbound Analyst

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) points to a small rebound in flows josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

via Hormuz on Tuesday despite the attacks, albeit skewed to outbound tankers. Oil and

gas tanker crossings increased to 15 from 12 on Monday. Outbound tankers were up to Tom Allen

12 from 8 and included 7 crude tankers (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf).