SA commodity export monitor "Could 2H26 be tighter than expected?" Friedman

Research evidence excerpt

SA commodity export monitor "Could 2H26 be tighter than expected?" Friedman

Powered by Lab Global8 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

SA commodity export monitor Equities

South AfricaCould 2H26 be tighter than expected?

Mining & Metals

Steve Friedman

Figure 1: South Africa PGM exports (3E), koz

Analyst

steve.friedman@ubs.com

E),

(3 +27-11-322 7252

rts Myles Allsop

xpo Analyst

M e myles.allsop@ubs.com

PG

ica +44-20-7568 1693

Afr Ndumiso Lushaba

th Associate Analyst

Sou

ko z ndumiso.lushaba@ubs.com

+27-11-322 7094

Daniel Major

Source: UBS Evidence Lab Analyst

daniel.major@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3472

Supply: Will refinery maintenance constrain refined availability?

Joni Teves

South African PGM exports have recovered strongly through 1H26, alleviating near-term

Strategist

supply concerns and rebuilding refined metal availability. Year-to-date 3PGM exports are joni.teves@ubs.com

running 17% above prior-year levels following last year's disruptions. However, the +65-6495 6851

seasonal outlook may be turning less supportive. Planned refinery maintenance at

Valterra during Q3, alongside potential maintenance elsewhere in the industry, could

result in one of the weakest H2 export profiles in recent years, with the second half

potentially contributing closer to 47% of annual exports versus a historical average of

53-55%. While mine production would remain broadly unaffected, a weaker H2 export

profile could reduce refined metal availability and leave the market increasingly reliant

on inventories. This could leave physical market conditions tighter than normal during

2H26. The key debate for investors is whether the market is underestimating the impact

that refinery maintenance could have on refined metal availability during 2H26.