North American Oil & Gas "The Gas Digest – Key Takes From 2Q Nat Gas..."

Research evidence excerpt

North American Oil & Gas "The Gas Digest – Key Takes From 2Q Nat Gas..."

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

North American Oil & Gas Equities

AmericasThe Gas Digest – Key Takes From 2Q Nat Gas

E&P Preview Calls Energy

Josh Silverstein

Analyst

josh.silverstein@ubs.com

Key Takes From 2Q Catchup Calls +1-212-713 3513

Ahead of the 2Q calls, we caught up with all the key natural gas producers. Key from our Peyton Dorne

discussions have been: 1) 2Q differentials were wider vs initial expectations. Basis swaps Analyst

may have limited some of the headwinds, but realizations were still a bit weaker across peyton.dorne@ubs.com

Appalachia, Haynesville, and AECO. 2) 2026 production and capex outlooks will likely +1-212-713 4359

remain unchanged, but we see upside to 2H26 volumes. 3) Buybacks will increase in 2Q, William Barber

but will really increase in 2H26. Balance sheet improvement continues to be prioritized, Associate Analyst

but we heard a willingness to accelerate in 2Q as the stocks pulled back. 4) No change in william.barber@ubs.com

individual strategies. For example, EQT's midstream developments remain underway, +1-212-713 5553

RRC's long-term growth additions are still intact, and AR continues to extract synergies Nayoung Kim

from the HG transaction. We are positive on the Nat Gas E&Ps into the updates, with the Analyst

stocks trading near 52-week lows despite an improving long-term demand outlook. nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

Power Demand Estimates - Small Growth Y-o-Y

Relative to our initial 2026 demand outlook, PowerGen has been weakest vs.

expectations. In our updated supply/demand model, we reduced our 2026 PowerGen

outlook by 0.5Bcfpd. Looking at Genscape estimated data, 1H26 gas power burn was

up 2.4% in 1H26 vs. 1H25 and equally, 2.4% in 2Q26 vs. 2Q25.