TFF Group (1K) | Hold | Recovery pushed further out

Research evidence excerpt

TFF Group (1K) | Hold | Recovery pushed further out

ion. Visibility remains extremely limited.

Bourbon: The Bourbon market remains the group's main challenge. Although end-market

consumption remains relatively resilient (-1% in 2025), TFF's customers continue to reduce

production to absorb exceptionally high inventories, equivalent to around 10 years of sales in

Kentucky. Management believes normal production levels are still 18 to 36 months away. For

FY 2026/27, TFF expects production of around 370k barrels, versus 423k barrels produced in

FY 2025/26, while average selling prices are expected to decline by another 5% to 10%.

Despite these headwinds, the division continues to generate resilient profitability, reflecting

strict cost discipline and production adjustments.

Scotch: Market conditions remain challenging as distillers continue adjusting inventories.

Customer inventories have increased to around 9 years of sales, resulting in lower demand

and a 26% decline in average used barrel prices. Management expects another decline in

customer volumes during FY 2026/27 but believes selling prices should broadly stabilise. The

repair and refurbishment business continues to perform well and provides some resilience.

Wine: Management continues to expect a difficult environment across the Wine division. New

barrel demand remains weak as wineries postpone investments amid tariff uncertainty, USD

weakness and declining consumption, particularly in the US. While Europe remains

comparatively more resilient, management also highlighted that the current heatwave across

Southern Europe could weigh on the 2026 harvest, adding another source of uncertainty for

customers. Diversified activities such as large containers and forestry continue to perform