Tryg (AO) | Hold | Conference call: 2027 top-line recovery in focus

Research evidence excerpt

Tryg (AO) | Hold | Conference call: 2027 top-line recovery in focus

ceed current market expectations, which we

estimate at above 3.5%.

Commercial weakness was mainly linked to the weak 1 January 2026 renewal and the residual impact of past price increases after

the inflationary period. Market conditions remain fairly stable, and the weakness appears more linked to Tryg protecting margins

than to a major competitive deterioration.

Retention is stabilising and slightly improving, including in Commercial, providing an early positive indicator for a better growth

trajectory into 2027.

Tryg announced new partnerships with SAS Eurobonus and Lederne, targeting attractive middle- to high-income customer segments.

While these partnerships are positive examples of Tryg’s ability to attract high-quality partners, management was clear that 2027 growth

confidence is not based on these alone. The broader driver is the catalogue of more than 20 commercial initiatives across the group.

Sweden was highlighted positively, with growth above 5% and momentum across personal, commercial and motor. The 13 motor

partnerships signed last year are now implemented and contributing to growth.

Norway remains a key positive. Tryg reported a Norwegian combined ratio of 77.3%, the best reported level in the last 10 years,

helped by past profitability actions and continued pricing ahead of inflation.

Underlying profitability remains supportive. The group underlying claims ratio improved by 50bps in Q2, with Private improving

by 60bps and Commercial by 30bps

Large claims were significantly above quarterly guidance, mainly in Sweden and Denmark, but management described the

experience as stochastic. For H1, large and weather claims combined were broadly in line with expectations. The impact from