JM (AO) | Hold | Q2 first take: Earnings miss, but recovery signals improve

Research evidence excerpt

JM (AO) | Hold | Q2 first take: Earnings miss, but recovery signals improve

News comment

Release date: 10 July 2026

Alexander Dimovski

Equity Research Analyst

+4687235117

adimovski@keplercheuvreux.com

HoldJM

Sweden | Property Beta Profile: MCap: SEK9.1bn

Target Price: SEK131.00 Bloomberg: JM SS Reuters: JM.ST

Current Price: SEK140.50 Free float 85%

Up/downside: -6.8% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 68.6

YTD abs performance 0.9% Market data: 09 July 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 154.00/108.80

Q2 first take: Earnings miss, but recovery signals improve

Key points:

Sales came in at SEK2,815m (-3% vs consensus).

Reported EBIT at SEK70m (-39% vs consensus). Excluding c. SEK25m of one-off costs, EBIT would have been c. SEK95m, 17%

below consensus.

Reported pre-tax profit at SEK16m (-79% vs consensus)

Production starts at 679 units (-4% vs consensus).

Sold units at 784 (-4% vs consensus).

Sold-and-booked in current production was 64% (60% in Q1 2026), above JM's 55-60% normal range.

Finished unsold units increased to 489 from 453 in Q1 2026.

We expect a negative share-price reaction today, given the earnings miss and strong share price performance going into the

report.

Initial takeaways from the Q2 results

Q2 is a clear earnings miss, but the operational read-through is more balanced. Sold-and-booked rose to 64%, while balance-

sheet unsold units continued to decline and strong working-capital release reduced net debt. Sweden continues to improve, and

JM maintains its intention to start more homes in 2026 than in 2025, while the near-term outlook remains weaker in Norway and

Finland. Given the EBIT miss and recent share-price performance, we expect a negative reaction today. The medium-term case

depends on stronger Swedish demand translating into higher starts and improved margins.