Vinci (1K) | Buy (vs Hold) | Upgrade to Buy on valuation grounds

Research evidence excerpt

Vinci (1K) | Buy (vs Hold) | Upgrade to Buy on valuation grounds

#EarningsPreview #RatingChange

Release date: 10 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile Buy (Hold)Vinci

France | Constr., Infra & Materials Beta Profile: MCap: EUR69.4bn

Target Price: EUR146.50 (143.00) Change in TP: 2.4 % Bloomberg: DG FP Reuters: SGEF.PA

Current Price: EUR119.35 Change in Sales: -1.1% 26E/-1.3% 27E Free float 87%

Up/downside: 22.7% Change in Adj EBIT: -1.6% 26E/-1.6% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 174.6

YTD abs performance -0.6% Market data: 09 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -1.6% 26E/-5.6% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 142.35/113.05

Upgrade to Buy on valuation grounds Price performance

Why this report?

Vinci's share price has lost 17% from the late February high, meaningfully

underperforming the market. The stock has been weighed down by concerns

about the level of traffic elasticity to oil prices, potential airport traffic

disruption, the contracting revenue miss in Q1 and French taxes (both the

infrastructure-specific tax on revenue and the temporary corporate tax

surcharge). These concerns seem to us markedly overdone and, in the context

of our resilient SoP valuation, we now see attractive upside potential to the

stock. We, therefore, upgrade the name from Hold to Buy.

Key findings

The Iran war has resulted in negative traffic performance in Vinci's French toll

roads so far this year (-1.8% YoY in Jan-May) as there is short-term elasticity to fuel FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

price shocks; however, experience tells us that this impact should tend to dilute Sales 76,029 78,507 80,811

over the medium/long term. The conflict's impact on airport passenger volumes EBITDA adj. 13,823 14,432 15,037

has, overall, been quite limited and kerosene supply disruption seems unlikely.