Elis (AO) | Buy | H1 2026 preview: Guidance should be comfortably confirmed

Research evidence excerpt

Elis (AO) | Buy | H1 2026 preview: Guidance should be comfortably confirmed

Elis Buy | Target Price: EUR30.00

One point to monitor concerns Mexico, where Elis did not renew part of its public healthcare contracts following ongoing tender

renegotiations. Since then, however, the Group has already recovered part of the lost business, significantly reducing the

potential impact. Mexico generates roughly EUR120m of annual revenues, representing around 26% of Latin American

revenues and approximately 2.5% of Group sales.

Based on our discussions, we estimate the remaining revenue impact at only EUR5-10m in 2026, with an even smaller impact

likely in 2027 as additional contracts are progressively recovered. Consequently, we continue to view the Mexican issue as

manageable and expect Latin America to remain Elis' strongest growth contributor.

H1 2026E: resilient growth, stable margins

We expect Elis to report H1 2026 revenues of EUR2,452m, up 4.6% YoY, including +3.1% LFL growth, and implying +3.1% LFL in Q2-

26E, broadly in line with Q1 and reflecting a resilient pricing environment despite a softer volume backdrop in Europe.

We forecast stable EBITDA and EBIT margins at 34.7% and 15.1%, respectively, while adjusted net profit should increase modestly

to EUR218m (+2%), reflecting the continued operating leverage of the business despite a more challenging macro environment.

Reported net profit should reach around EUR157m (+3%), with exceptional items remaining elevated due to some restructuring

expenses and and financing-related costs.

Another positive development is capital allocation.

Elis has now almost completed its EUR500m share buyback programme, having already repurchased around EUR480m (18.3m

shares, c.7% of the share capital).