Sanoma (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: Soft Q2, stronger H2 ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Sanoma (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: Soft Q2, stronger H2 ahead

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 10 July 2026

Kristoffer Carleskär

Equity Research Analyst

+44 207 621 5149

kcarleskar@keplercheuvreux.com

BuySanoma

Finland | Media Beta Profile: MCap: EUR1.4bn

Target Price: EUR11.40 Bloomberg: SANOMA FH Reuters: SANOMA.HE

Current Price: EUR8.57 Free float 58%

Up/downside: 33.0% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 0.9

YTD abs performance -9.8% Market data: 09 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 11.14/8.46

Q2 preview: Soft Q2, stronger H2 ahead

Key points:

Group: We expect sales to decline slightly in Q2 (-1%), a modest deterioration from the flat trend seen in Q1, reflecting a more

negative trend in Media Finland, while Learning is set to build on the positive trend from Q1. Improved group revenue trends are

expected in Q3-Q4 (3-5% growth), driven by Learning and tailwinds from curriculum changes. We forecast 2026 group sales of

EUR1,333m, towards the upper end of the guidance range of EUR1.29-1.34bn. We forecast Q2 adjusted operating profit to grow by

8%, driven by Learning. For 2026, we forecast adjusted operating profit of EUR225m, at the very top end of guidance (EUR205-

225m), with our estimate including a minor tailwind from recent bolt-on acquisitions in Spain and Poland.

Learning: We expect revenue to increase by 3% in Q2, slightly below the 4% recorded in Q1, with solid trends across the board,

and a minor tailwind from the bolt-on acquisition of Vicens Vives in Spain. We expect curriculum renewals in Spain and Poland to

support improved revenue momentum in Q3-Q4, with growth moving into the high single digits. For Q2, we expect adjusted

operating profit to grow by 10%, driven by both top-line growth and continued margin expansion.