Wolfe Industrial Weekly #962

Research evidence excerpt

Wolfe Industrial Weekly #962

July 6, 2026

Exhibit 32: Small Business Confidence vs. US ISM: Small Business Exhibit 33: WR CapEx Expectations Index: Our proprietary

Confidence for May came in at 95.3, the lowest reading since 4Q24 Wolfe Research Capex Expectations Index (CXI), which measures

– the move lower is likely attributable to increasing inflationary the outlook for US capex growth over the next 6-12 months,

pressures (exacerbated by the ME conflict), which can be more of increased significantly M/M to +19.2 in June vs. +14.8 in May –

an issue for smaller businesses. Note that the relationship between overall, 2Q26 came in at 16.8 vs. 14.9 in 1Q26. We are well

Manufacturing ISM and Small Business Confidence is murky (~40% above historical median levels (12.6) with encouraging signs of

correlation). momentum in the last few months.

110 70 40

105 30

60 25

100 20 55

95 50 10

45 5

90 0

40 -5

85 35 -10

-15

30 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26

Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986 = 100; LHS) ISM Mfg(RHS) Capex Expectations Index (CXI) 5-Yr Median

Source: Wolfe Research, ISM, NFIB Source: Wolfe Research, Company Documents, US Feds

Exhibit 34: WR Current Inventory Expectations Index (CIX): The Exhibit 35: WR Future Inventory Expectations Index (FIX): Our

CIX ticked up M/M in June to +2.1, which compares to May at +0.7 proprietary FIX index reflects the outlook for build vs. draw of

and April at -0.2. The index is quite volatile month-to-month, but inventory over the next 6-12 months. June stepped down modestly