Building Products 2Q26 Channel Checks

Research evidence excerpt

Building Products 2Q26 Channel Checks

July 6, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Building Products. The BP equities (ex QXO) are trading at 11.3X our 2026 EBITDA estimates and 19.2X on a P/E

basis (ex QXO), compared to the 11.0X and 19.9X respective historical averages.

Windows & Doors

Our Windows and Doors checks reveal a market that is mixed with R&R continuing to outperform New Res, with some

green shoots in R&R. 2Q revenues are up slightly YoY, although we suspect there are some market share shifts

between major manufacturers. Our contacts expect R&R to be flat to slightly down in 2026 while New Res is expected

to be down MSD to HSD. Production builder demand is expected to be down HSD with custom builders outperforming.

Geographically, the Midwest and Northeast are stronger than the Southeast and West with Florida called out as being

notably soft. The industry is pushing pricing this summer, although passing pricing to production homebuilders is a

non-starter in the current environment. While price realization is going better than anticipated broadly, our contacts

do not expect pricing to cover inflationary headwinds. Aluminum, freight, and glass inputs are all creating notable

inflationary headwinds. Interestingly, our contacts believe the Japanese players that have been rapidly consolidating

US homebuilders are looking to vertically integrate with Sumitomo recently touring window OEM manufacturing

plants.

Roofing

Roofing demand has improved as anticipated off very easy 4Q25 and 1Q26 comps. Most OEMs and distributors came

into the year low on inventory and the pickup in demand has driven a tight supply/demand environment with certain

markets seeing some shortages of product. Our contacts expect ARMA shipments are likely up modestly YoY in 2Q