Rai Way (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | Loss of the main equity driver

Research evidence excerpt

Rai Way (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | Loss of the main equity driver

#RatingChange

Release date: 09 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile Hold (Buy)Rai Way

Italy | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR1.2bn

Target Price: EUR5.20 (6.70) Change in TP: -22.4 % Bloomberg: RWAY IM Reuters: RWAY.MI

Current Price: EUR4.59 Change in Sales: none 26E/none 27E Free float 35%

Up/downside: 13.2% Change in Adj EBIT: 0.5% 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 3.4

YTD abs performance -17.8% Market data: 08 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 1.2% 26E/none 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 6.27/4.59

Loss of the main equity driver Price performance

Why this report?

Rai Way has lost what had been the main equity driver for a long time, a likely

sector consolidation. We remove the M&A premium and still find some upside

and an attractive dividend, but we are also mindful of the potential share

overhang created by an RAI placing, and the uncertainty on the capital

allocation, as management may still seek a significant re-leveraging to a

more adequate capital structure.

Key findings

On 1 July, RAI and F2i/MFE ended their negotiations for a potential merger of

broadcasting towerco units Rai Way and Ei Towers.

While no official comment was made on the reasons for the fallout, several press

articles have suggested two issues: the length of the MSA contract and the FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

valuation. Sales 291 305 318

EBITDA adj. 192 200 209

This was a surprising but also disappointing outcome as we found it to be a lose- EBIT adj. 128 132 139

lose for all parties. Net profit adj. 88 89 93

Rai Way misses the potential strategic and industrial value of a merger, including Net financial debt 128 158 222 FCF 72 58 25

the opportunity to re-lever the balance sheet to an optimal capital structure.