Kaufman & Broad (AO) | Buy | H1 2026: flat bookings

Research evidence excerpt

Kaufman & Broad (AO) | Buy | H1 2026: flat bookings

Kaufman & Broad Buy | Target Price: EUR37.00

Balance sheet

Net cash stood at EUR243m at H1 2026, after the EUR43.2m dividend, but management reiterated that around EUR200m will be

used for Austerlitz, with delivery planned in 2027.

The movement in net cash, from EUR319m at YE 2025 to EUR243m at H1 2026, is also driven by the change in WCR, from negative

EUR215m to negative EUR147m.

The group also has a EUR200m undrawn RCF, taking total financial capacity to EUR446.6m.

Consensus

FY 2026 guidance was largely reiterated. Consensus for FY 2026 is in line with guidance and, in our view, largely de-risked due to

the nature of the accounting lag between commercial performance and financial performance, with high visibility on this year's

P&L considering the backlog at the start of the year. With H1 already at EUR501m revenue and EUR40m EBIT, FY 2026 guidance

looks largely de-risked.

Table 2:Revenue split (implied)

FY 2027 (Cons.) FY 2026 (guidance) FY 2025 Δ var. 27-26

Housing 1,032 930 871 11.0%

CRE 140 190 249 -26.3%

Other 16 16 16 0.0%

Total 1,188 1,136 1,136 4.6%

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kepler Cheuvreux

On the other hand, we believe that FY 2027 revenue and EBIT consensus could be revised down by 5-10%. Indeed, consensus

implies a step-up of c. 5% in revenue and EBIT from FY 2026 to FY 2027. Considering the c. 26% lower expected contribution from

Austerlitz in FY 2027, we estimate FY 2027 consensus implies a c. 11% step-up in housing revenue. In our view, that seems rather

demanding, considering the current trajectory of bookings (flat in volume and down 7% in value).

Nonetheless, we do not necessarily expect a large negative share price reaction at open, but more likely rather a slightly negative

one.