ASR (1K) | Buy | H1 preview: SII ratio up, no big surprise

Research evidence excerpt

ASR (1K) | Buy | H1 preview: SII ratio up, no big surprise

#EarningsPreview #EstimatesRevision #FlashReport

Release date: 09 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyASR

Netherlands | Insurance Beta Profile: MCap: EUR13.5bn

Target Price: EUR75.50 (74.00) Change in TP: 2.0 % Bloomberg: ASRNL NA Reuters: ASRNL.AS

Current Price: EUR67.80 Change in Volumes: none 26E/none 27E Free float 70%

Up/downside: 11.4% Change in Op Profit: none 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 57.5

YTD abs performance 11.8% Market data: 08 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -0.3% 26E/-0.6% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 67.80/56.50

H1 preview: SII ratio up, no big surprise Price performance

Why this report?

ASR will publish H1 results on 19 August. We expect a OCG at EUR751m in H1,

and slightly cut our OCC estimates by c1% as we expect EUR6.5bn pension

buyout AUM by end 2028 (versus EUR8bn previously). We expect the solvency

II ratio to be resilient at 222% end H1-2026 up from 218% end 2025. Focus will

be on 1) OCC trajectory, 2) non-life GWP growth, 3) M&A, 4) comments on

distribution. We keep our Buy rating and move our TP to EUR75.5.

Key findings

We expect solvency II ratio at 222% end 2025 and see the following moving parts

1) OCC (+12.6ppts), 2) dividend (-4.7ppts), 3) SBB (-2.9ppts), 4) market impact

(+3.1ppts mainly from tighter mortgage spread at -14bps in H1 and a +1.5%

positive revaluation on real estate in H1), 5) -1.5ppts from the rating downgrade

on Belgium and 6) -2.0ppts from double counting of indirect return assumptions. FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Non-life revenues (m) 5,815 5,968 6,525

Our estimates do not include any longevity reinsurance in H1. Op. Profit (m) 1,653 1,664 1,721

We expect the OCC at EUR751m in H1-2026E and EUR1,358m in FY-2026, in line Net profit adj.