Oil Weekly #92: OPEC+ return of supply vs sector risk / reward

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Weekly #92: OPEC+ return of supply vs sector risk / reward

Global Majors

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Refiners

Oil Weekly #92: OPEC+ return of supply vs sector risk / July 5, 2026

reward

Exhibit 1 - BBG vs.

The Wolfe Byte Actuals (mbbls)

Crude StocksOur oil weekly focuses on issues we see of most significance to the sector outlook, Est (2,903)

Actual (3,775)anchored on EIA weekly data as the only 'real time' monitor on the health of oil Diff (872)

& refining markets. EstDistillate Stocks 10

Actual 2,483

Diff 2,473

Gasoline Stocks

Est (560)

Actual (2,333)Issue of the week: There are two issues we expect to frame the near term sector Diff (1,773)

outlook this week: whether the correction in the XLE is enough to revisit the broader EstUtilization 95.8%

sector, and the read through from the latest OPEC meeting affirming (another) ActualDiff 96.6%0.8%

188,000 bpd increase in quotas? To be frank we believe this was expected; but Source: Wolfe Research, EIA

it underlines a growing debate on the risk of oversupply if and when conditions

normalize in the Middle East.

From our standpoint the bulk of the oil price correction is likely done. The bad news

is the risk of over supply has moved front and center as the critical debate for the

post war outlook. However, as reviewed in our first pass earnings preview (ahead if Doug Leggate

dleggate@wolferesearch.com

management discussions) we argue that downside risk for some, is mitigated by the (832) 810-9915

scale of the absolute decline in oil prices and the XLE that has already taken place. View Doug’s Research

On a DCF basis, it follows that with value for the US oils dominated by the long end View Comp Table

of the curve, we see less absolute downside risk from here. John Abbott

jabbott@wolferesearch.com