Soitec: F1Q preview: Photonics upside priced in; Lower PO

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Soitec: F1Q preview: Photonics upside priced in; Lower PO

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Soitec

F1Q preview: Photonics upside priced in;

Lower PO

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 138.00 EUR | Price: 118.40 EUR

Photonics growing but expectations are elevated; Neutral 07 July 2026

Soitec reports F1Q revenue on July 28th. We believe there is downside risk to css Equity

estimates for both Mobile, given the weak smartphone market, and Edge AI, given the

high implied Photonics-SOI growth. However, we expect the overall business to recover

Key Changesfrom its FY26 earnings trough. We raise FY27-29E Edge AI but lower Mobile and Auto/

Industrial ests, lowering EBITDA. Reit. Neutral with lower €138 PO (was €193) on (EUR) Previous Current

updated SOTP valuation. Price Obj. 193.00 138.00

2027E Rev (m) 624.5 604.1

Street is projecting Photonics-SOI growing above industry 2028E Rev (m) 780.6 741.9

We view Soitec’s Photonics-related upside as priced in, with Edge and Cloud AI (of which 2029E Rev (m) 1,033.1 955.6

Photonics-SOI was 42% in FY26) forecasted to grow by css at 28%/34%/43% in 2027E EPS 0.31 -0.17

FY27/28/29E. This would imply Photonics revenue growth significantly higher than the 2028E EPS 2.26 1.78

50% CAGR for FY26-29E that we model, which is based on Photonics-SOI total die area 2029E EPS 4.88 3.82

CAGR forecasts. For context, our global team projects 40%+ total optical revenue

growth CAGR in data centers. Given various uncertainties including amount of NPO/CPO Oliver Wong >>

content growth, we lack conviction in further Photonics revenue revisions. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 9014

oliver.wong2@bofa.comUncertainties remain on Photonics growth assumptions

With questions on various Photonics-SOI content assumptions hard to answer, it is Didier Scemama >>

Research Analyst