Iberian Banks: Decoding pre-2Q26: a transitional quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Iberian Banks: Decoding pre-2Q26: a transitional quarter

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Portugal 9 July 2026

Spain Iberian Banks

Results

Banks

Decoding pre-2Q26: a transitional

quarter

Alfredo Alonso

A constructive though unsurprising 2Q26 confirming 2H26 recovery... Research Analyst

Iberian banks' 2Q26 reporting season is set to kick off with Santander on 22 July and +34-913351153

conclude with Unicaja on 31 July. Overall, we expect a confirmation of

Atul Hanamante

strengthening underlying trends, with concerns about the Iran conflict remaining Research Associate

quite limited. As a result, although mostly in line with expectations, we anticipate

a constructive quarter, driven by solid operating performance and healthy loan and

deposit growth above initial expectations. Furthermore, a higher-than-anticipated

rates environment points to improved NII developments into 2H26 and 2027,

underpinning a more optimistic outlook.

...but enough to convince the markets? Although our price target for BBVA is

Following 1Q26 seasonal weakness, 2Q26 should mark the start of a more below the current price, we maintain our

sustained earnings recovery. NII growth is expected to slightly exceed the day- Buy rating and will revisit our thesis once

count positive impact, with positive developments also to be seen in fees. This will the company has reported quarterly

numbers.

be coupled with confirmed cost discipline (with domestic banks' C/I at 37%) and,

following 1Q concerns, robust asset quality and sustained provisions (domestic

CoR ~34bps), allowing for strong returns. This, alongside comfortable capital

levels, should provide reassurance about future shareholder distributions. That

said, following the strong stocks performance lately, and given the lack of new