Simon Property Group: Downgrade To Hold: Feels Fully Valued Given Earnings Growth Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Simon Property Group: Downgrade To Hold: Feels Fully Valued Given Earnings Growth Outlook

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Simon Property Group 9 July 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States SPG.N SPG US Price target (USD) 220.00 Price at 8 Jul 26 73.15

52-week range 227.56 – 72.95

Financial

REITs Valuation & Risks

Downgrade To Hold: Feels Fully Valued Given

Earnings Growth Outlook OmotayoResearch OkusanyaAnalyst

+1-212-250-9284

Key Takeaway:

Rafi Lewis We are downgrading SPG to a Hold rating from our prior BUY rating. Research Associate

Fundamentally, we still believe the company remains one of the biggest

beneficiaries of a K-shaped economy, as its collection of high quality class A malls

and outlets continues to benefit from strong consumer spending trends from high

income consumers. The retail backdrop remains constructive, with strong retailer Key changes

demand for a limited amount of available space driving occupancy gains and Rating Buy Hold

accelerating base minimum rent growth. We also see earnings upside from the Price target (USD) 205 220 7%

solid development/redevelopment pipeline given the 9% yield. We are actually Source: Deutsche Bank

raising our 2026/2027 FFO/sh estimates to $13.25/$13.69 from $13.20/$13.59

given the improving earnings outlook. We are also introducing a 2028 FFO/sh

estimate of $13.98. We are raising our PT to $220 from $205 to reflect this

improved outlook.

However, at 16.3x P/FFO, the stock now trades at a price to FFO multiple

premium versus peers such as MAC (15.6x P/FFO) and SKT (15.4x P/FFO). We

believe the premium valuation is warranted, but future stock upside is heavily

dependent on earnings growth, which will remain somewhat below recent trend