Industry Report: Tracking returns in Consumer & Retail: June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Industry Report: Tracking returns in Consumer & Retail: June 2026

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Industry Report

Tracking returns in Consumer & Retail:

June 2026

Industry Overview

Leveraged Staples find relief from hawkish Fed, supply 07 July 2026

As U.S.-Iran tension eased and the Strait of Hormuz re-opened, investors shifted their High Grade Credit

focus to a hawkish Fed, flatter yield curve, and heavy supply in June ($206bn). Consumer United States

demand remained resilient (May spending per household rose +5.1% y/y according to Consumer & Retail

BofA credit and debit card) and despite soft June payrolls, unemployment was 4.2% and Brian Callen, CFA

Research Analyst

weakness was merely due to seasonality in leisure & hospitality jobs. Overall, IG widened BofAS

+2bps m/m (76 OAS), generating -17bps excess return (ER) and +0.15% total return, +1 646 855 8987 brian.callen@bofa.com

outperforming equities (-1%). Retail (-36bps ER) underperformed due specialty (-42bps), Avantika Pedamallu

e-com, apparel & mass retailers (-23bps) drag, specifically AMZN & WMT on a weighted- Research Analyst

impact basis. Staples outperformed (-8bps ER) helped by Food (-2bps) where low-BBB’s BofAS+1 646 855 7557

that prolonged fallen angel status by considering hybrid issuance or dividend cuts to avantika.pedamallu@bofa.com

protect ratings rallied. Protein (TSN) was pressured by concerns on beef profitability

from the spread of new world screwworm.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 Consumer Staples leaders and laggards in June

Extending crossover risk allowed low-BBB Food issuers to rally vs. Beverages lagged

150 (bps)

50 Returns 0

-50 Excess-100

FLO CPB PII CAG BACARD Staples ADM JABHOL JDEPNA TAP TSN

Source: ICE Data Indices LLC, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: Top 5 Retail leaders and laggards in June