Recruiters Chartbook: Macro meets micro

Research evidence excerpt

Recruiters Chartbook: Macro meets micro

9 July 2026

Staffing

Recruiters Chartbook

Searching for inspiration in the pictures

Recruiting market trends remain mixed. Macroeconomic headwinds persist and,

while the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has provided some relative stability,

events remain fluid and it has not been sufficient to drive a broader labour-market

recovery. Equally, the negative impact to date has been less material than we

previously anticipated. The US has remained resilient and exceeded our

expectations, while weak macroeconomic conditions in Europe continue to weigh

on activity, compounded by political uncertainty in certain markets, notably the UK

and France.

That said, the charts provide some grounds for encouragement. Manufacturing and

services PMI data have recovered across a number of regions, which should

intuitively support blue-collar recruiters such as Adecco and Randstad. In the UK,

temporary staff billings have increased for three consecutive periods, with

particular strength in blue-collar and engineering roles.

Recruitment valuations continue to trade at a significant discount to historical

levels, reflecting both cyclical pressure and perceived structural risks from artificial

intelligence. While we recognise the potential for job displacement, we believe

disintermediation concerns are more nuanced and appear overdone at current

valuation levels. Recent share-price performance has been more constructive, with

our recruiter peer group up on average c.6% over the past week and US peers

Manpower and Robert Half up c.17% over the past month.

Translating into performance

UK-listed white-collar recruiters continue to report quarterly YoY net fee declines of

c.5–10%, marking c.10–12 consecutive periods of contraction. However, the pace